Toyota Predicts Australian Ute Boom is Over as Market 'Pie' Shrinks

Toyota Australia sales heavyweight Sean Hanley believes the nation's insatiable appetite for utes has finally peaked, warning that the segment is about to "drop a little bit" just as a wave of new competitors flood the market.

After years of record-breaking growth that saw the Ford Ranger and Toyota HiLux become the country's two best-selling vehicles, Hanley suggests the market is now unnaturally inflated by new budget entrants and will soon correct itself.

"The only assumption we're making on the market is very simplistic... It's a market that's incredibly crowded. It's going to get even more crowded," Hanley said in a recent interview with CarSauce.

"The market size itself has been driven right now by new 4X4 entrants... But the pie is getting smaller... eventually that will settle. I think the ute market will drop a little bit, not grow."

Hanley’s comments paint a picture of a sector that is becoming a battleground. With major influxes of products of from GWM, BYD, LDV, MG, Kia, and even returning challengers like Foton - there are more brands than ever "fighting for a piece of a smaller pie."

Toyota’s strategy, according to Hanley, has been to plan conservatively around this predicted drop rather than assume the boom times will last forever.

However, the sales boss admits that if his bearish prediction is wrong, the outcome for Toyota is hardly a disaster.

"If that [drop] doesn't come to fruition, the worst case for Toyota is we get more and we sell more," Hanley joked.

"That's worth a meat pie."

This "win-win" outlook underpins Toyota's current confidence. Even with the HiLux facing its stiffest competition in decades, the brand believes that planning for a tougher market now will pay dividends when the inevitable correction arrives.